Wikimedia growth scenarios

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The potential scenarios for Wikimedia's future growth:

  1. Steady, strong growth: Wikimedia is able to continue to ride the curve of Internet adoption, expanding reach throughout the world and particularly in areas where online populations are growing most quickly. Wikimedia’s contributor base grows to include contributors from new geographies and languages, and these contributors generate content that attracts new visitors. The contributor base for large projects is healthy, engaged, and increasingly diverse; as a result, the quantity, quality, and variety of content grows as do visitors to these projects.
  2. Slowed growth: Wikimedia is able to maintain its strong position in areas of the globe where it is strong today, but is not able to increase penetration in other areas. Wikimedia remains a project that largely engages and benefits North Americans and Europeans. The contributor base within mature projects remains stable; smaller projects remain small, both in terms of contributors and articles.
  3. No growth: Wikimedia is not able to maintain its strong position in areas where it is strong today due to increased competition and failure to innovate. The contributor bases for mature projects shrinks, which impacts quality as there are fewer editors to maintain and develop content; poor quality drives away readers. Smaller projects remain small, attracting few contributors and limited traffic.

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