Wikimedia market analysis/Methodology

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Methodology for forecasting

Internet user projections

  1. Determined the total number of Internet users in 2008 using country level data from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU)
  2. Calculated compound annual growth rate in Internet users by region for 2008 through 2015, based on data from Forrester Research
  3. Based on (1.) total number of Internet users in 2008 and (2.) compound annual growth rate data from Forrester, projected number of Internet users from 2009–2015, by country

Baseline Projections

  1. Compiled data on market share of Wikimedia Foundation websites by country-level, when available, or at regional level from comScore [1]
  2. Used projections for number of Internet users in 2008 (see above) and market share data from comScore to estimate number of Wikimedia users at country-level;
    • Because comScore does not include Internet users under age 15 as well as people who access the Internet via Internet cafés, estimates of total number of Wikimedia users from comScore are lower than our estimates which are based on combined data from comScore and the ITU

Wikimedia user projections

Strong, steady growth

  • Estimated market share by country based on comScore reports for 2008 and 2009
  • Projected future market share from 2010–2015
    • Assumed constant market share (2008–2009) in countries where people currently have access to a mature Wikipedia and in countries where Internet use is growing slowly
    • Assumed 3% decline in market share between 2010 and 2015 in countries where number of Internet users is growing rapidly and where people have access to an emerging Wikipedia [2]
    • Assumes investments would increase the market share in targeted countries by 5% [3]
  • Applied projections of market share from 2010–2015 to projections of number of Internet users from 2010–2015, to determine projected number of Wikimedia users from 2010–2015
  • To estimate growth in readership in the Global South and Global North: defined Global North as North America and Europe; defined Global South as Latin America, Middle East & Africa, and Asia Pacific

Slow growth

  • Assumed same growth in Wikimedia users as strong steady growth projections for North America, Latin America and Europe
  • Assumed no growth in the Wikimedia users in Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East (i.e., kept number of Wikimedia users in these regions at 2009 level)

No growth

  • Assumed no growth in Wikimedia users through 2015 (i.e. kept number of Wikimedia users in all regions at 2009 level)

Footnotes

  1. Based on data from October 2008 – October 2009
  2. Assumed 5% decline by 2015, rationale is that current market penetration is first adopters of Internet with ability to access English Wikipedia; as more people in these developing Internet markets come on line, a smaller percentage will read English. There is no data to confirm or verify that 3% is a reasonable estimate for this decline. Market share for China kept constant at 2%.
  3. Targeted countries: India, Brazil, Russia, Middle East and North Africa, Indonesia, and Turkey