China and Africa
One issue here is that we should be simultaneously developing a five-year plan for the movement and mission, as well as one specifically for the Foundation, to put the latter in context.
Another is that I haven't seen an explicit assessment of the cost & impact stats of various solutions or ideas. From my perspective, if we can define a major priority, whatever the cost, we can find people, networks, organizations, governments, and global superstars to make it happen. And 'low cost/high impact' proposals are always interesting, even when not targeting a core priority.
If expansion in China, India, and Africa are important (simply on the basis of reaching all of manking, as well as current access to knowledge in those areas) but we don't know how to do it effectively, a meta-priority to find better ways to do that [rather than "investing" in a specific type of solution that may or may not work] would be appropriate.
What guided me in the research I did for the Local Language Project Task Force was precisly cost and impact. However, I found that it was very hard to find numbers that meassured the actual impact a strategy would have. For example the cost for localizing the MediaWiki software was estimated to be $0 (well maybe not zero realy), $90 000 or $900 000 depending on what method that was used to get that work done. But then, how do we know what impact that realy has on the local projects? I asked Siebrand at translatewiki.net for data on the correlation between past localization and project growth, but such statistics didn't exist. Hopefuly it will be available in the near future though, as Siebrand told me that he had spoken with Erik Zachte about this in the past, and that work on trying to make this happen was sheduled to take place in January.
Another recommendation where it is obvious that the strategy will cost a lot of money is the fourth recommendation about having more local servers to rise access speeds. Here it is possible to make the estimates about how much faster the loading times will be. You can have a gut feeling that if average article access time is lowered from 30+ seconds to 10 seconds or below you probably will have larger use of the projects, and thereby also contribution to the projects. But how can you be sure that this realy is so? Maybe other factors play a role as well that won't make the projects grow even if people have instant access to the material.
So even if the price and some parameter that is likely to be correlated with project growth is quite easy to estimate. It is still very difficult to estimate the actual impact that the different strategies will have, because you don't know how strong the correlation between the actual impact and the "likely correlated parameter" is. I would therefore make clear that I am very unable to make any judgement about how large the different recommendations in the Local Language Project Recommendations actually will have, and my hope is that many with a greater understanding of the complexity of the problem can make such.
You're right; it's hard to be exact. However, we can make good guesses. Take your example of localisation. We know that localizing our software affects projects across the board, whereas putting a person on the ground in a specific country most likely only affects that country. Now, maybe putting that person on the ground has a greater effect in that country than localizing the software. So the analysis does start getting more complex.
I want to reiterate something. This letter is largely focused on Foundation investments. It makes sense, given the Foundation's limited resources, to focus on things that will have broad impacts. However, because we are a distributed movement, it makes sense for people on the ground to engage in local strategies. One of our big next steps is to flesh out the movement roles questions. Specifically, who in this movement should be doing what?
Regarding cost/impact analysis: The regional analysis largely focused on impact and less on cost (other than China). There's another layer of analysis that still needs to be done. Help us flesh this out. A good starting point is Wikimedia market analysis.
Yes, I agree with both you and the letter that on-the-ground precense in Africa ain't something to strive for at the moment. One of the first lessons Gerard tought me when I arrived here was that general strategies that will have an impact on a large amount of projects are something to strive for. And I believe that such strategies not are pushed aside in this letter with point 4,5 and 6 under "Synthesis of the issues to tackle with the strategy" and point 3 under "Recommended priorities for the Foundation" supporting this. At least I believe these statements are sufficient for South America, Africa, Middle East and South Asia. How well they address the issues of reaching China and India I don't know though.
What analysis is supposed to be collected? Under market analysis I find a lot of tables that allready are filled in. But is there some specific collection or analysis of data that needs to be done?
When we put a person on the ground in a particular country, he or she CAN localise for the language he knows. When this person is not part of that countries language(s) and culture(s) he is likely not to be as effective as could be.
When we put someone on the ground in a multi-lingual country, then it should be one of his/her objectives to remove all the roadblocks that exist.. Finding people to localise our software is one of the more obvious ones.
The notion that these approaches are in competition is not that wise; as we understand the processes that promote editors to edit and readers to read, it is only natural to have a person on the ground make those the priorities. Thanks,